We use 6.8 billion face masks a day. Researchers want to turn them into roads
Discussing our sustainable delivery business models with Stuart
It's no secret that the cargo business, especially air freight, has seen revenues booming throughout the pandemic.
The reason is simple: passenger planes used to carry quite a bit of cargo in the hold (around 50% of global cargo in total) on any given flight, and that capacity has mostly disappeared amid the coronavirus outbreak.
This resulted in cargo operators being busier than ever, and the price of air freight shooting up.
Container prices on key routes from China to the US and Europe, for instance, more than doubled in 2020 compared to 2019 as Reuters reports.
Freight costs also spiked within Europe, especially between France and the UK, as the **Exponential View** newsletter outlines.
Ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period in December, thousands of freight trucks piled up on both sides of the English Channel, with shippers increasingly rejecting cargoes to avoid getting trapped in transit.
The result: last-minute freight rates skyrocketing.
Venture Capitalists and Wall Street speculators are willing to heavily bet on electric vehicle companies, assigning gigantic valuations to companies that have yet to produce any vehicles.
With about 7.8 billion USD, electric and autonomous vehicle startups raised more VC funding in 2020 than any other sector in Travel and Mobility Tech as our own research shows.
One of the main drivers behind this bullish investor sentiment: falling battery prices.
According to the latest analysis by BloombergNEF, lithium-ion battery pack prices, which were above $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, have fallen 89% in real terms to $137/kWh in 2020.
If this trajectory continues, average prices will be expected below $100/kWh by 2023.
This is close to the price point where automakers should be able to produce and sell mass-market electric vehicles at the same price (and with the same margin) as comparable internal combustion vehicles.
But it's too early to celebrate.
The electric vehicle era could soon be stifled by a shortage of batteries and raw materials that will require significant investments in manufacturing, mining, and recycling as **Axios projects** based on Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data.
An extension of the sustainability drive, we expect logistics companies to focus on last mile efficiencies. Last mile delivery is defined as the movement of goods, most likely from a transportation hub, to the final delivery destination. Cushman and Wakefield's Last Link Report revealed that the last link can account for 50% or more of the supply chain spend, as rising home delivery expectations enhance the risk of encountering inefficiencies4. Resolving last mile inefficiencies will remain a key focus for logistics companies in 2021. For example, in 2019, Amazon agreed to buy 100,000 custom-built electric vans made by Rivian Automotive Inc. This summer, Amazon announced it is buying 1,800 electric delivery vans from Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz, the retailer's biggest commitment to date to cut the carbon footprint of its European delivery operations5. At the same time, electric vehicles will be a key part of its pledge to be net-zero carbon by 20406.
Cities are converting car-centered streets and parking lots into public spaces for mobility. Where the street and parking space for cars is being reduced, bike paths and sidewalks are being expanded and prioritized with public transport. This trend has been greatly accelerated by the corona pandemic.
The corona crisis is having a profound and long-term impact on mobile society, both in high-density urban areas and in rural areas. The protective measures under the sign of the crisis - contact blocks, home office and schooling as well as legal frameworks that have to be constantly monitored and updated - have in some cases radically slowed down the pace of urban life. During the first wave of the pandemic, streets were swept empty and many of the mobility practices that had previously defined everyday life were called into question. The pandemic is hitting the mobility sector - and is realigning the entire industry.
If there is one thing the supply-chain industry needs to learn from the ongoing pandemic, it is agility. The supply chain has to be flexible enough to absorb any shocks, major or minor, that comes along its way. This includes natural disasters and unpredictable demand. Using AI and machine learning, SCM could build models to predict future events and be prepared for it. Currently, not many companies are leveraging this technology. However, the COVID-19 pandemic could be an eye-opener and motivate the supply-chain industry to become more agile in the coming year.
While the expectation for more and more workers to be remote in the digital world of the future, few expected it to be so soon as 2020. With COVID-19 forcing millions of companies around the world to transform their office workforce to a remote one, the expectation is for this trend to remain going forward, as many organisations remote the same level - if not more - productivity from employees.
Commuters and business travelers want mobility from a single source, and mobility providers are starting to tailor their offers accordingly. In the context of all-inclusive mobility, mobility products - such as cars, bicycles or public transport - take a back seat to mobility services and join a seamless mobility chain. The bundling of the offers works not only digitally via an app, but also in the physical space. The goal: to pick people up exactly where their mobility begins and ends.
5G could have the potential to push the logistics industry into full digitalisation by providing end-to-end continuous coverage for monitoring, tracking and theft detection. A report by STL Partners found that the adoption of 5G in the transport and logistics industry could add $280 billion in gross value to the global economy in 20309.
Stronger AI. Automation has been a trend in almost all industries since the previous decade. The continued success indicates that this trend will only get stronger in the coming year. Most notably, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as the primary propellant for automation in the supply-chain industry. By crunching data from past operations, AI algorithms can perform basic operations automatically. This saves a large amount of time and eliminates the possibility of human error, thus making the operations more efficient. It also redirects the human capital to perform more complex tasks.
With the rise in commitment to environmental sustainability, “local authorities in the UK are considering the implementation of Low Emission Zones (LEZs) and Clean Air Zones (CAZs),” commented Mitrefinch.
While there is a noticeable shift towards online sales and personalisation which as a result is generating more job opportunities, one of the main challenges for the industry going forward will be filling new roles. “Currently, around 13% of freight drivers are recruited from the EU, and the Freight Transport Association (FTA) suspects that the shortfall of drivers currently sits at around 59,000,”
A team of researchers at the University of Oxford have revealed what they say is a cost-effective and efficient way of producing jet fuel from carbon dioxide, offering hope that one day vacationers might be able to jet off abroad without the cost—and associated guilt—of a hefty carbon footprint.
The team at Oxford Chemistry, including chemists Benzhen Yao and Tiancun Xiao, and led by professor of chemistry Peter Edwards, successfully converted CO2 gas directly into jet fuel using an inexpensive iron-based catalyst. Previous successful attempts to turn CO2 into jet fuel have required complex processes and expensive chemicals. But as revealed in the journal Nature, the Oxford researchers believe the new method could produce a competitively priced fuel that could potentially eliminate the high emissions burden of air travel.
“As you can imagine, we are really excited about these results and the impact they will have on sustainable aviation fuel,” researcher Benzhen Yao told Forbes.com. “Under the pressure of climate change, our discovery will contribute significantly to worldwide sustainable fuel production processes.”
The team began researching the possibility of turning CO2 into fuel over a decade ago, but Yao said his team had “finally realised that dream with this discovery.” The method involves using CO2 captured from the air, which is converted with hydrogen (H2) using a process called hydrogenation and a catalyst made from a compound of iron, manganese and potassium to produce specific hydrocarbons. Yao said the new process is “more economical and environmentally acceptable” when compared to indirect methods, such as the conversion of CO2 to methanol and then to jet fuel.
“The smaller number of processes inevitably leads to higher efficiency and lower cost,” Yao added, explaining that the iron compounds used were much less expensive than the cobalt compounds used in other processes.
We’re not going to be riding in flying taxis yet in 2021 — the first services aren’t likely to begin until 2023 at the earliest. But cities will start to make preparations for networks of flying taxis.
Volocopter, the German flying taxi startup, will start test flights near Paris next year, and has said it would begin services in Singapore by 2023. Dubai is also carrying out tests with Volocopter and China’s EHang, and says it could begin services in 2022.
EHang is also working with the Austrian city of Linz on a pilot project.
Meanwhile, Lilium, the German flying taxi company, has announced a series of hubs this autumn. Germany it has deals with Cologne and Dusseldorf airports, and in the US it has a deal with Lake Nona, the futuristic smart city just outside Orlando, to operate flights from there. Expect a lot more announcements in 2021 for take-off and landing spots in other cities.
There are at least 50 cities worldwide evaluating the viability of urban air mobility, according to a report by Frost and Sullivan, the consultancy, mainly because they need to ease congestion and find cheaper alternatives to road- and rail-building.
To achieve the aim of the Paris Agreement, companies like Amazon and Maersk are piloting initiatives such as Climate Pledge, to minimize carbon emission in ships and vehicles. Maersk aims to use ships and marine fuels with low carbon emissions by 2030. Other renowned companies are investing heavily in sustainable logistics route.
The drive towards net-zero will play a significant role in the future of logistics, both in the construction of warehouses and for operators. In terms of construction, the sector should continue to embrace the "green building" recommendations of the World Green Building Council3. Developers and contractors will need to integrate renewable and low-carbon technologies to supply buildings' energy needs, such as purchasing renewable energy directly from the grid, on-site generation or direct purchase arrangements with wind, hydro and geothermal installations. Additional features might include solar panels and charging points for electric vehicles.
The arrival of a coronavirus vaccine has the global travel industry preparing for a rebound in demand following a historically terrible year.
No wonder that optimism in the industry had been trending upwards in December with the entire sector hoping for an upswing in the spring and summer.
But the previous days have shown that bottlenecks in vaccine distribution present the next unexpected hurdle which countries and governments have to overcome first.
The **Travel Tech Essentialist newsletter** ranked the fastest countries in terms of vaccination rates based on public data from Our World in Data.
The takeaway: Israel is teaching the world a lesson right now.
Mobility is developing from movement in space to a mobile experience. Mobility Seekers perfect this new game of mobility by navigating flexibly, on the go and situationally pragmatic through the cities of the world. They are young, urban and free from mobile conventions. They do not need their own car, but they do not shy away from automobility either, but instead make use of the almost unlimited possibilities that are available to them. And the cities are reacting - with new offers and new spaces. The corona crisis only affects Mobility Seekers to a limited extent, because they are flexible and open to all mobility alternatives that are offered to them.
With vaccinations expected to reach lower-risk populations as early as spring, the summer of 2021 may prove the most social, sexual, and generally hedonistic for more than thirty years.
While many have projected a revival of the atmosphere that took over Haight-Ashbury and beyond during 1967's warmer months, I expect 2021 to look more like Manchester in 1988. Often referred to as the "Second Summer of Love," that year saw the United Kingdom captivated by acid house, illegal raves, and rampant drug use. Though the first Summer of Love held hazy political and humanitarian goals, aided by the boundary-expanding properties of LSD, the second aspired to nothing more than sneaking into a warehouse and dropping MDMA.
Presuming we're short of full vaccination, I think 2021's revelers will have to play a similar cat-and-mouse game, and after a few politically sapping years, want for little more than music and good times.
Expect a sharp rise in Advil, Gatorade, and birth control consumption, and an uptick in venereal disease as second-order effects.
Autonomous mobility is becoming a reality - slowly but surely. Cars have ever more extensive autonomous capabilities, and infrastructures are increasingly being given digital functions. Mobility services and local public transport are also benefiting from the new technical realities that can get by without human drivers. What may be welcome in the age of social distancing also harbors social explosives, because in the future the drivers of buses, taxis or ride-hailing offers will be one thing above all else: test subjects for the driverless transport of the future.
We discussed the various technologies that are being adopted by the supply-chain industry. However, it leads to a larger trend: the layering of multiple technologies. The supply-chain industry has understood that it can no longer treat technology as an isolated service, i.e., as a means to an end. Technology will inevitably become the backbone of the supply-chain industry. Hence, we will observe a more significant push toward integrating and layering technologies, eliminating data silos in the supply chain, while creating dynamic, actionable data across technology stacks and platforms.
The logistics managers can monitor the various processes happening across the logistics area with the help of augmented and virtual reality.
Logistic startups have long been ignored by VC’s and Enterprises when it comes to investment. However, this trend is soon going to change. Logistic Startups like Keep Truckin, Roadie and Flexport have already secured an investment of one billion and more from various VCs and enterprises.
In recent years, the ecommerce industry has boomed. Current figures predict that the UK ecommerce sales will have increased to US$74.8m in 2020, with 95% of purchases worldwide expected to be made online, by 2040.
With the pandemic driving the unprecedented rise in online sales, it is expected that even when countries move out of lockdown that consumers will favour online shopping.
The delivery of goods and groceries on the last mile has been put in a new light by the corona crisis. The new health and hygiene requirements are accelerating a trend that will revolutionize the entire logistics chain: In the future, delivery bots will populate our streets and sidewalks in order to deliver parcel deliveries not only highly efficiently, but also extremely hygienically. The trend is fundamentally changing shopping and retail - the customary interpersonal contact during delivery will no longer exist in the future.
Warehouses involve a manual workforce, which constantly requires human monitoring. By automating warehouses, the mundane tasks, such as loading goods, monitoring the goods received, and dispatched goods across the warehouse and other operations would be automated. Many companies like GreyOrange and Locus Robotics are integrating robots to carry out tasks in warehouses.
The internet of things (IoT) is another technology rapidly adopted by the supply-chain industry apart from blockchain. Like blockchain, IoT works in the direction of boosting transparency across the supply chain. GPS sensors can be fitted in modes of transportation like trucks to offer live location tracking. Sensors in the warehouse help visibility in inventory management, while those in retail outlets help in gauging demand.
The potential expansion of e-hailing, car sharing, urban air mobility, and other diverse mobility solutions is changing how we travel. Riders now have many cost-effective and convenient alternatives to vehicle ownership, and their options will continue to grow over the next decade.
The shared mobility market now exceeds $60 billion in value across the three largest markets: China, Europe, and the United States. The future will bring even greater gains as self-driving taxis and shuttles become more common and urban air mobility moves past the pilot stage. With this momentum, we expect the annual growth rate for shared-mobility solutions to exceed 20 percent through 2030.
Smart contracts are transaction protocols that are meant to execute when certain conditions are met automatically. In the supply chain, it could mean automatically generating an invoice when the shipment reaches the destination or conducting financial transactions between parties. Smart contracts have started to be used to settle payments using cryptocurrencies automatically. Smart contracts remove the need for arbitration from a trusted party, thereby making the process much faster.
Whilst some European cities such as London have not yet approved the use of electric scooters on the streets others have more or less banned them already for being too messy.
The city council in Copenhagen decided earlier this year that electric scooters are allowed on the streets – they just need to be hired from a physical shop and then be returned to it as well. This obviously is not in line with the business model of Voi, Tier and Dott.
The move was akin to Copenhagen’s decision to ban Uber for a few years back – stating that they could do better themselves. They couldn’t but that doesn’t mean that they would budge under the pressure this time.
Many cities, like Lisbon, Paris, Berlin have introduced fines for electric scooters wrongly parked. In Sweden, there is now an app for angry pedestrians to send a note to the local government departments, tipping them off about wrongly parked scooters.
The problem of scooters lying across the pavements seems to continue though. Perhaps next year we will see a new way of dealing with the scooters without the drastic measures of Copenhagen.
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected millions of people worldwide, bankrupted businesses, and plunged the global economy into crisis. While lockdown measures and shelter-at-home orders are helping contain the coronavirus, they have also brought severe financial hardship. Amid a new reality of working from home, canceling trips, and even forgoing outings to restaurants and grocery stores, the micromobility industry—encompassing a range of lightweight vehicles such as bicycles, e-scooters, and mopeds—is facing devastating declines in ridership and revenue.
The blow to micromobility came just as the industry was accelerating. In 2019, a banner year, our models predicted that the micromobility industry would be a $300 billion to $500 billion market by 2030.
Mobility patterns have changed throughout the pandemic, driven by social distancing rules, lockdown measures, and travel bans.
Data from **analytics firm Teralytics**, which tracks people’s mobility behavior via analyzing aggregated mobile signal data, shows the impact of the pandemic on the choice of transport mode by people in Germany.
At the end of November, when new lockdown measures started to be re-introduced, mobility behavior in Germany slowed down across all transport modes but at very different proportions:
Blockchain has been alternatively called “the biggest breakthrough” and also “just hype” over the years. But the technology has proved its worth in various industries; the supply-chain industry is one of them. Research suggests that blockchain can save $31 billion by 2024 for the food and beverage industry alone. In the coming year, we can expect to see wider adoption of blockchain technology across the supply chain.